The nostalgia-fueled vinyl resurgence has been totally unexpected and completely feel-good. But the numbers still show a niche market, at least for now. At present, vinyl accounts for less than one-percent of broader album sales in the US, according to Nielsen Soundscan, though sales are expected to grow another 50 percent this year.
So how many units is that? The projection calls for 2.8 million in 2009, up from 1.9 million in 2008, according to figures shared at the NARM Conference in San Diego last week. Small potatoes for major labels, but great news for well-positioned indies and record stores. Indeed, last year, independent retailers accounted for 70 percent of total vinyl sales, and 67 percent so far this year.
The year-over-year percentage gains are starting to cool, though absolute gains are steadily increasing. In 2008, the format added just under 887,000 units, a 90 percent gain. By the end of 2009, another 938,000 are projected to sell, a milder 50 percent gain. But percentages are misleading, simply because a smaller start point creates a bigger percentage gain. And record stores - a group that now includes Best Buy - will enjoy another unexpected crop this year.
Think this is all a bit strange? Dig into the details and it gets even stranger. At the Musexpo in Los Angeles in April, a number of executives pointed to fans purchasing vinyl without owning a turntable - merely for the memento. Other tidbits will also surprise - for example, one of the best-selling vinyl albums is Guns N' Roses' Chinese Democracy, another collector's item. (A more detailed ranking can be found within a detailed Nielsen Soundscan presentation, on slide 25.)
So, what happens after 2009? At some point, the numbers will level, but it remains unclear if this niche ever graduates towards something more substantial. Bigger companies like Best Buy and EMI are positioning themselves against potential gains, though specialty shops, indies, and DJs have been there all along.
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